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I will have to admit "Felicity" is a pseudo name and that person is very dear to me. For email, you can reach me through IntelecPoint@gmail.com.

30 comments:

chang chee siong said...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2213888/Punto-Banco-Worlds-number-poker-player-wins-7-3m-2-nights-London-casino-REFUSES-pay-out.html

Genting UK give ppl win 90mil , it will hurt genting next quarter earnings bad, will u continue hold longterm?

felicity said...

Hi Chang

Yes, of course. This is part and parcel of its business. Kinda interesting though the article.

If I am to hold long term, news like this is part of Genting's business which it needs to deal with.

shrobin said...

Hi Feli Cheah,

Can I get your thoughts on NTPM? Noted the Chairman is starting to buy back its own share despite consistent
selling by LTH. Appreciate some comment on valuation as well.

Thanks !
Shrobin

felicity said...

NTPM is a good local story. It may not be that big but the successful building of a local brand against foreign players excites me.

of course, in any business it has its challenges, but if you notice, the premier, Royal Gold, Cutie brand are one of the two largest brands in Malaysia and probably Singapore. It should not be easy for the company to build that especially against Kimberley-Clark - owner of Kleenex, Huggies.

I would think, it will continue to be a strong company. Any major drop is buying opportunities. NTPM may face some challenges in terms of costs, growth, and management team who are quite senior in terms of age. Nevertheless, the strength that it has built especially in the brand for a consumer product and distribution should be strong enough for the next gen.

shrobin said...

Hi Feli,

Thank you for your initial comment.
NTPM Q1 is making 10.213 millions. I am projecting that NTPM will make about 50 million for the full year. Last year was making 44.78 million. Traditionally, the quarter profit peak in Q3. The pulp price has been on a down trend. This should help the bottom line. Share price for forward earnings at 12xPE expected to be 0.53. Approx. 18% return, not including dividend. Appreciate some comment on valuation. Thank you!

felicity said...

I think NTPM is a good buy if you like consumer stock and has a decently strong brand. At this price, it is quite difficult to find one at such PE now

shrobin said...

Hi Cheah,

The Q2 for NTPM is ending this month. The result is expected to be announced in Dec. If the Q2 result is at least 10.67 million or more, then there is a good chance of achieving the 50 million on full year.

Kimberly Clark is selling at a PE of 19 at the moment.

Lembaga Tabung Haji is selling down their stake since 2 years ago. Not sure why they are selling down?

felicity said...

Hi Shrobin

Do not worry over TH selling. These funds usually do these.

In fact, if fundamental does not change much over the longer term, it is a buy.

As for Kimberley Clark comparison, the company is into healthcare as well. As such, it may not be apple to apple.

chang chee siong said...

Hi Felicity, would like to recommend a stock for u to analyst. the stock name Huayang. I personally think this stock good. would like to hear ur point of view. ty.

shrobin said...

Hi Feli,

I have been tracking MKH. The mother share seem getting really cheap after ex-rights with bonus and warrant.

Full year 2012 is making about 72 millions after tax profit.

Appreciate your analysis and view on this stock!

Market Watcher said...

Hi Feli - I've previously posted on your blog as YTLP Investor.

I've recently written a short opinion piece on YTLP's value, your feedback/opinion is appreciated.

http://marketcsi.blogspot.com/2013/01/ytl-power-value-share-or-value-trap.html

Jacky Lim said...

Hi Feli,

For long term investment, do you set a TP for it or purely based on condition of its fundamental? For example, airport is good for long term but in short term it may go back to 5.20 if sentiment is changed recently. Under this condition, would you still hold it or let go before it dip and buy back later. Need your opinion on this

Tq
Lim

felicity said...

HI Jacky

I do not have a fix strategy but most of the time I look at fundamental. In your example on Airport - how do you know it will drop to RM5.20? I don't, hence I do not even know when to sell.

My strategy is to continue to look for great companies with good price - not overpriced

Sell and buyback have many times failed me...

Jacky Lim said...

Hi Feli,

I do not know but it depends on market. Anyhow thanks for your value opinion.

Lim

Jacky Lim said...

Hi Feli,

Wonder why the selling pressure for Airport is so high as it future is so good. It may go further if it break below 5.54. What do you think ?

Lim

felicity said...

I do not know, perhaps due to the intention of bidding for the Stansted airport with YTL...

Jacky Lim said...

Hi Feli,

I think you are right. Hope it can stay calm.

Lim

miao miao said...

Hi, Felicity,

Thanks for your insightful sharing on stock investment.

Currently, I'm looking at DKSH. I found online ur article on it and realised not much analyst coverage on this stock.

Basically, I'm quite impressed by the restructuring by the Swiss owner in 2008, significantly improve the operating performance. Looking at the use of ERP and various technology, believe continue prosper.

Looking at current price of RM2.70 w the cost of RM0.80 you bought earlier, would the pice be overvalued now? at PE approx 10.

Its company gives me good feeling similar to BAT, GAB etc..professionally run MNC business in Malaysia

miao miao said...

hi, felicity,

btw, understand that you also invest share in Euor and US market. Which platform or broker you are using?
How's the charges like?

Thnaks

felicity said...

I use Phillips Securities but there are better ones.

Jacky Lim said...

Hi Felicity,

What is DRP of MAHB mean to us with price of Rm5.14?

felicity said...

DRP is dividend reinvestment plan - which means that it is allowing shareholders to convert the dividend at a price of RM5.14 to new shares to be issued by the company. usually, it is worthwhile to take up the DRP as it is cheaper than the market price.

Jacky Lim said...

Thanks for the advice but what is the procedure to convert it?

felicity said...

They will send you the forms - but when was this? I did not receive any news yet on this.

Jacky Lim said...

Thanks

Chang Chee Siong said...

Hi, would like to seek ur comment on a stock.GCB.how do u think tis stock for its future?

Unknown said...

What do u think of Magni?

Earnings and cash flows for Magni-tech Industry

As Magni has no or little debts, and negligible minority interest, and moreover, its cash flows and free cash flows are stable throughout the years, it is a good example to illustrate earnings and cash flows of a company. The table below shows the per share earnings and cash flows of Magni from 2008 to 2012.

Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Total
Earnings per share, RM 0.282 0.167 0.159 0.111 0.098 0.818
CFFO 0.321 0.086 0.129 0.216 0.286 1.038
FCF 0.282 0.035 0.058 0.191 0.226 0.792
Dividend+∂Book value 0.275 0.159 0.184 0.116 0.113 0.848

Magni’s EPS grows by 30% from 9.8 sen in 2008 to 28.2 sen last financial year. The total EPS for the 5 years is 81.8 sen. The total CFFO, i.e. the actual hard cash received in the 5 years was RM1.038, 22 sen more than EPS. This is the good quality of earnings I am talking about, i.e. the earnings is translated into hard cash. The main reason is each year there is this depreciation and amortization which is non cash, but is a form of accounting cost which reduces earnings. However sometimes EPS can be less than CFFO because earnings is not realized in hard cash; debtors owe the company money; sometimes the company may have booked this “earnings” but clients may dispute it. Some companies even book doggy “earnings” like what the infamous Enron did and many companies are doing now. Often company may have to build up its inventories and hence earnings is hidden there with more inventories, but not hard cash. Too much receivables and inventories build up causes CFFO less than earnings; and too much the gap means poor quality of earnings.

To maintain its competitiveness and growth, company got to spend money for capital expenses. After doing that, the money left behind is the FCF; cash which a company can use to distribute dividend, pay down its debts, make some investments and buy back shares. With capex, company then only can maintain its earnings and grow it earnings. There is why you can see earnings of Magni keeps on growing because of the capital expenses. However, each ringgit spent in capex may not grow as much earnings. Even without growth, company still have to spend money on maintenance capex like buying new machinery to replace old ones etc.
Hence according to Warren Buffet, the more important thing about a company is its ability to produce increasing “owner’s earnings”, or FCF, which Warren Buffet defines as:

"These represent (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges...less (c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume”

In Magni’s case, the total Owner’s earnings for the last 5 years is 79.2 sen as shown in the table, slightly less than the total earnings.
The last line in the table shows the sum of dividend plus the change in book value per share of Magni of a total of 84.8 sen for the last 5 years. This according to the presenter of the video in the following link, is a more appropriate measure for return for an investor.

felicity said...

Hi

It is a Berjaya group's company. Seldom do I buy any of the companies in the group. Quite bad experience.

They may have changed though...Hence, it is not just the financial numbers I look at.

Benjamin Ye said...

Hi Feli,
Can you please share your pinion on ASIAFLE? Although the financial figures are good but the share price is sluggish for the past 3 years.

felicity said...

it is a good company, steady one