Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Astro targeted at RM3.50?? by Credit Suisse

I received a report from Credit Suisse on Astro. Here are the excerpts:

A media powerhouse

■     Initiating coverage with an OUTPERFORM. Astro is the only satellite pay TV operator in Malaysia, with a subscriber base of over 3 mn. We expect Astro to grow its subscriber base as well as ARPU at the same time. We initiate coverage on Astro with an OUTPERFORM rating and a DCF-based target price of RM3.50, implying c.32% potential upside.
■     Proxy for rising Malay household income. We believe Astro is a potential beneficiary of Malaysia’s attractive demographics: a young and growing population, whereby a growing economy is driving income growth. Malay households, which account for 60% of Astro’s subscribers, have the highest income growth within the Malaysian population. Astro’s wide range of content is suited to Malaysia’s multi-lingual population, whereas free-to-air (FTA) TV has limited capacity to offer dedicated vernacular channels.
■     Growth drivers. Astro’s ARPU grew 8.5% from FY10A to FY12A. Potential ARPU drivers include high definition (30% take-up currently), personal video recorder (PVR), Super Pack and IPTV. We have baked in mid-single-digit ARPU growth for FY14-16E but if management delivers high single-digit ARPU growth, we estimate, 16% further potential upside to our target price.  
■     Trading 11% below IPO price. We apply a mid-point 15% discount-to-DCF to arrive at our RM3.50 target price. Historically, Astro has traded at a 3%-29% discount to DCF valuations—this suggests a share price range of RM2.90-4.00. Key risk factors, in our view, include content cost, satellite transponder capacity, technical/broadcast failure, competition, regulatory risks and currency. While FY13-14E EBITDA is dampened by significant costs related to a box swap, we expect profitability to rebound in FY15E when the bulk of Astro’s subscriber homes will be equipped with an HD-box.

It went on to compare Astro in Malaysia against UK and US as well as India. Yes, comparison is not wrong but the things he fails to see is this and this. So, before Astro reaches the potential that he sees in US and UK, other threats will just kill it. And, where are Astro's threat coming from? Here.

I am just wondering, where he gets these data... Astro itself?

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