Saturday, September 6, 2014

Who is the rat now?

Ironically this happened after I have posted the article in which case I was wondering something could be amiss on how the fund raised was used. That article was on Bright's rights where the cash raised was almost immediately used up.

Well another twist which is seemingly weird right? An executive director claiming that her signature on the financial statement was forged. Well for someone who had worked for PwC, Affin Merchant and Head of Corporate Planning for a company which is AIM listed? It takes someone of that background about 6 months to notice her signature in the financial statement was forged? Can that be really happening? Again, More questions than answers right?

Now my question is why wouldn't she resign? In any case the claim made on a listed company (or any company for that matter) is really very very serious!

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Laying low

What happens when one does not know where the market is heading? There are 2 things we can do i.e. exit or another way is to continue to look for a strong potential company. Or else another thing one can do it by taking short term opportunity.

I have done that in one of the stocks, i.e. Jobstreet. If I can, I would only be putting my money in about 3 - 4 stocks, but can't do that as it is not good enough of a diversification.

For a while, I have not been able to have a good feel over the mid-term prospects of the market. I know that the speculative stocks are flying but for how long? That is always the fear. In previous experience, the hugely speculative stocks could potentially be a dampener to stock market generally especially when it crashes.

It will pull the others down as well. The only difference is that the strong fundamental ones will pick itself back while the fundamentally useless stocks may not make a comeback. Personally, I am not a market timer, and I do not intend to. Gone past that stage thinking of best ways to do market timing and to me it is a waste of time.

On the other hand, I am not a clever seller, hence might as well not sell (which is the best solution). One a few months time, hopefully the dividends from Jobstreet will provide me with some funds while some of those stocks I am holding will continue to provide consistent dividends. They are Padini, NTPM, Jobstreet (continue to provide quarterly cashflow).

One should note that from the portfolio, there is a new stock i.e. Keuro-WE. Well, that is through the rights subscription. For a while, I have not been updating the portfolio, and it is time I do so.

Am I thinking of selling some of the stocks? No, cause there is no better way of putting my money except towards stocks investments. And I am not too sure of it heading south as well. So the best way is to lay low while planning the next move.

Saturday, August 30, 2014

MAS turnaround plan: Precisely why Airasia is a dangerous stock

I love Airasia as an innovative company. It has the leadership, management, right mindframe to be on top of the leaderboard among the airlines regionally. However, as I have always mentioned before airline business has a huge danger - continuous support from government due airline being considered for its sovereignty. No country can do without its national airline - that's the thought of most leaders.

The public can accept it if there is no national airline. Government officials cannot. The bailout of MAS is precise why Airasia always has that danger in among its competition. Imagine if Airasia is facing financial will just go bankrupt. It is unfair competition. MAS can fail but Airasia cannot. And in fact many other airlines regionally have failed - Thai Airways, Garuda, Japan Airlines. Qantas is facing some challenges as well.

How many times have there been rescue plans for MAS and I am quite it will not be the last.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Have we not learned?

This same thing I have seen over and over again in my life as an investor / stock trader. If you know what I mean, the year 2014 appears to be a speculative year again. People just like the excitement although they do know that what they are doing is a negative sum game. If it is a negative sum game, why bother? Well, if you look at Genting or Genting Malaysia's shares, we can basically understand - there is never a year where Genting will be on the losing end but still people will just like to take that bet - hoping that their luck will be good that day.

The last few months, it has been a good time for penny stocks, in which case most of them have little investment value. One who have been into stocks market long enough would know that any deals that are announced are just useless deals, but they are welcomed with hope, just like those who goes to a casino in Genting.

I have started tinkering with the market since the early 90s and I have seen this large speculative period in 1992/93 (basically on all stocks including loan stocks), 1996/97 (especially second boarders and could have indirectly caused the collapse of the economy), 2004 (MESDAQ counters, to the extent that Bursa changed the name to ACE Market?) and more recently but less dramatic (the penny stocks). Little do I see the same group of people excited over the same speculative period. Why? Because they have left the market getting burned.

For those whom are still living with that excitement of thinking that you can beat the market this way, well look at it - the world is getting more connected. Systems can get more complex which means that the person can trade from overseas, and not being tracked. They can create an account trading under a foreign company. They have all the information about the stocks and market while those who follow blindly (but thinking they have the information) are just playing to their tunes.

Just read some of these news here and here and here. The point I am trying to make is not on the people whom SC is trying to nab but the stocks. How many of these stocks are still around? Do anyone think they can really beat the market this way by trading on the useless, low value stocks?

Many do not know the best way for any investor to learn is to spend time learning about the business and companies - not the trading patterns. Even for those traders, they have a very strong understanding and hold of the market behaviour, economic conditions and positions of the controlling shareholders. They are not really read through the market movements and take a bet.