Where is the bullishness on IHH coming from?

I was wrong to think that IHH would probably be too expensive when this stock was listed last year. It actually is expensive and getting more expensive. Today, its market capitalisation is RM32.1 billion.  Amazing!

IHH's last year's IPO price was around RM2.85. Today, less than a year it is priced at RM3.95. But with the much fanfare, is it really that attractive?

Just yesterday, it announced its first quarter result. This result would perhaps be closer to the more real result, we expect to see in future, after the opening of the Mount Elizabeth Novena in Singapore, apparently a 6 star like hospital. This 1Q13 quarter's results is where you would not see extraordinary income from the locking in of profits from just accounting entry.

For the 1Q13, it registered a Profit Attributable to Shareholders of around RM127 million. See below. Hospital's business is hardly a cyclical business. If any, in fact the lowest period would be the fourth quarter where people are moving away for holidays. Hence the first quarter results is expected to be a better one. So, from here, what can we expect looking forward for the full year? It would only register a full year real results with profits of somewhere around RM500 million.

With this number, I in fact was too bullish. I was thinking of somewhere more than that - between RM600 to RM700 million profits attributable to shareholders, at the top end, last year. Remember, this year is supposed to be the performing year. In the 1Q13, where is the performance?

If it is going to be performing somewhere along the line of RM500 million to RM600 million, that is about 64 times PE we are talking about. Many people would like to use EBITDA, especially when they are finding it hard to explain the slower growth.

EBITDA is great but it is greater for companies that have spent a huge sum of money previously to expand because of the huge depreciation or amortisation. An example of a good company to look at EBITDA would be Malaysia Airport, post the KLIA2. However, IHH is a company which would need to continuously invest. It is promising or rather telling about the China (or Hong Kong) and South East Asia stories. That means what? It needs to invest.

Another thing about hospital is also about investment for equipment. Look below, for the 1Q13, where is the free cash flow? Somewhere along the line of RM148 million for one quarter. It is not good enough for the valuation one pays.

From the latest numbers, IHH still has around RM3.6 billion debt against cash of RM1.7 billion. That is not worrisome, but it is not fantastic either. The company is talking about expansion. We already see the free cash flow to be not too exciting, hence the reinvestment has to be much controlled. The balance sheet is not too strong, hence good dividends will be tough in near future, although it will pay some. So where is the bullishness coming from?

Talking about STAR

I am actually sad that a once Penang based newspaper is now at its position today, No, it is not in trouble but it has gone the wrong way. It has lost its middle ground as a newspaper, but more to serve its political masters. Already the newspaper business is so tough nowadays, where we see demise after demise of many all over the world.

I guess Malaysia they are a little bit lucky where printing license is limited and is probably only opened to one side of the political divide.

However, on the business side, Star is not entirely dead. It is a very decent company, but just that I do not know where it is heading.

The internet and Malaysian demography does disservice to Star as well. Why? People whom want to read Chinese for example, may go for Sin Chew or any others. However, if I want to read English, I do not go to Star. I go to all sorts of sites from New York Times, Washington Post to Bloomberg to Malaysiakini to TheMalaysianInsider. I will just go everywhere else except probably buying the Star newspaper.

The young demography of Malaysia, is not going to help. Star has to reinvent as what the earlier comment says on Jobstreet, needing to continue reinvent. But the main product for Star - which is the paper - is already wrong. Then it went to buy 5% of Catcha, who did the buying decision I wonder. It is now building by going strong on RedFM etc, but yet again I listen to BFM more than RedFM. Many more would like RedFM but the point here is options and choices.

The survival for Star now is because there are no strong competitors in the shrinking segment it serves. It is lucky that I do not even want to talk about New Straits Times.

Jobstreet continues to amaze

I am not saying this because I own this stock. In fact I am upset cause I did not buy more. Sometimes when there are doubters, I tend to pull back (not blaming anyone but myself). The business of Jobstreet continues to do well, now perhaps not in one country but 3 countries - Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines. It is not a "jaguh kampung" anymore.

See below:

Each of the 3 countries I mentioned exceeded RM10 million in revenue for the first quarter 2013. The business is easy but hard to quantify. As I have said before, and those whom have read my blog in this company would probably be tired (sorry) of me continuing to comment on Jobstreet (nope, I am not paid, in fact I am only a small shareholder), but it is not easy to comprehend. Me myself had doubts before. Just see the previous blog and its comment.

We have doubts because of the competition at hand. There is again Star (as I see it going nowhere yet), LinkedIN and perhaps many more. I have invested into Monster, it is a different "Monster", I can tell you that - don't know why. LinkedIN? I doubt so as LinkedIN itself would not be able to get so much market share. Perhaps the soft job market still in US and Europe.

Now, based on the above segmental, look at below for the previous corresponding quarter comparison:

Almost every ringgit earned is a ringgit gained. As long as it grows its revenue, it will perform amazingly.

I do not know how much the company spends on marketing costs, but the main strength now is the database which in the balance sheet you do not see. What do you see in the balance sheet? Besides to tell us that it has a strong balance sheet, nothing much...

Currently, as the company continues to be on the uptrend, its Price to Book Value will get widened. The cash that it holds will cover its expenses for slightly more than a year, I think. And that's it, nothing much to analyse.

The beauty is in the cashflow, hence dividends (be prepared for more) as well as the P&L. I should have bought more...

YSP: You Shall Pass?

With the recent market hike, it is really getting more and more difficult to find good deals or something which we can digest. While globally, market is on the uptrend, Malaysia included, I have just noticed Malaysia in fact is lagging behind markets like Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand - in fact almost everywhere else now.

I would not call the market as expensive but I am surprise of its strength. What provides that impetus for the bullishness. I do not know actually. Lesser people with pessimism the last few months?

Anyway, as I was looking at some companies, one did really get me to hmmm... wanted to know more. Most companies that announced to Bursa are either doing well, I have sort of covered, but there is one which started with "Y".

Once Warren Buffett used to joke to his audience, "do read through the Annual Reports of all the listed stocks in the exchange." The other person asked, "But, Mr Buffett, there are more than 10,000 companies listed". Buffett, replied, "Start from A". I sort of did that. And now reaching "Y" although Malaysia is far from having 10,000 companies. And anyway, along the way I did jump quite a few alphabets.

YSP SAH is a pharma company, something I can digest, have a decently good growth prospect. Small (around RM150 - RM160 million market capitalisation), I can digest as well as long as it is doing consistently decent or good. It is controlled by Taiwanese. Well, if I have invested into Wellcall and Latitude Tree, previously put some money into Uchitec, did decently well, I may want to try on this. More importantly, is it consistent and is it providing good enough return previously and perhaps for the future. If you look below, there is a sense of consistencies although not too bullish.

Yes, its Return of Equity is deteriorating but this is one company which is a growing. It does reinvest. I have done some checking as well among the hospitals, well this one is pretty small, no doubt but it has been supplying to hospitals for quite a while. Started its business since the 90s, its growth is far from amazing but consistent. Importantly, the dividend is above 5% yield, which in Bursa, not many now you can find. If you are getting some 3% from FD, I would say check out this one. The PE is slightly more than 10x.

Pharma in future is probably going to be a much more recession proof and more and more generic drugs companies are doing better due to many patents are expiring or already expired. It is a competitive business but yet there are monies to be made for many companies. YSP is not a fantastic company, there aren't any with regards to pharma in Malaysia. Why? Pretty much dominated by the big brands globally. With the current price though, it is still a buyable company, pretty much like Wellcall. You would have noticed that a small portion of my portfolio is meant for dividends stocks. Wellcall is one, so is Jobstreet but with the rise, it's Dividend Yield is moving further from the 4% to 5% threshold. For a small portfolio like this I couldn't be bothered with holding cash like what most fund managers are doing i.e. holding some 20% to 30% cash. This is unless the market is grossly overvalued and I am not good at timing the market, so why bother?

Anyway, I am not going to be taking too much of a risk but I am spreading my risk a bit as Wellcall seems to be tapering off in terms of performance, although still providing good dividends. Hence, I am selling half of my Wellcall and move to another which similarly provides good dividend - proposed to be 6.5% this year.

Any wonder why Taiwanese companies some of them provide good dividends? This is your food for thought.